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What The In-Crowd Won't Tell You About VR Games

Throughout the last couple of years, we've seen a plethora of news posts about how virtual reality was going to save the classic arcade. The idea goes that the VR gear is too expensive for home users, therefore it creates an chance for operators to pony up the big dollars to purchase it and then make their money back by charging a game to play it.
"While several high-end headsets were released annually which can bring virtual-reality adventures to your living space, adoption of the technology is still in its first days to get a lot of reasons--it's still bulky, pricey, and there is not all that far to do once you've got it on your face. Over two million cans were shipped worldwide in 2016, according to an estimate from market researcher Canalys, but this figure pales in comparison to the popularity of, say, video game consoles (sales of their top one, Sony's PS4, topped six million during the 2016 holiday season alone). Consumer virtual reality will likely catch on as costs come down and cans improve. Meanwhile, however, a number of companies are betting that customers may be pleased to pay a much smaller amount to try the tech with their friends at, say, an arcade, theme park, or bowling alley"
It's tempting to fall into this snare, but from an operator's standpoint VR is a terrible thing. Operators are being asked to pay top dollar for technology that is all but guaranteed to plummet in value over the very short term. Other than buying a brand new car and driving it a mile, I can't think of a way that you could eliminate money faster between what you pay and what you'll be able to get down the road.
Another limit for operators is that while you might be able to supply a space for VR people to wander around in now, as new VR technology is introduced, we are likely to see the stage expanded from 100 square feet to the whole world. Rather than viewing just the matches from your headset, indoor jungle gym equipment you'll see the real world with game play overlayed. Kids can go to the park and relive the knights of the round table or parking garages to shoot aliens. Since the technology allows more real world places to be researched, it is going to earn a cramped arcade seem fairly feeble in comparison.
VR is heading for mass market acceptance, however it's demand is not being pushed by players who wish to pay big buck to play with video games, but such as the BETAMAX that came before it, by individuals who wish to watch pornography in their homes.
Even when an operator can create a bit of money for the upcoming few decades, once VR achieves critical mass, then it is going to crush whatever revenue stream that operators're dreaming of. Don't believe me? Just check out what's going on in China.
A year later 22,000 of these have closed.
That is an incredible failure rate over such a short period of time and one which should function as a sharp warning to anyone considering investing in the VR games. Maybe Dave and Busters is able to take losses on the matches more than Chinese startup arcades, but I doubt most North American operators are going to fare far better with the tech in their match rooms and will only wind up in debt in the close of the day.
The problem essentially boils down to customers not being prepared to pay a premium to the experience. Tech In Asia, clarifies the problem perfectly in their own article, on that the Chinese VR boom and bust.

"Enterprising shop owners leaping into VR are finding it impossible to charge fees akin to cinemas or bowling alleys for a VR experience. 1 VR arcade proprietor told iHeima he saw eager queues when charging US$1.50 to get a 30-minute session, but everybody vanished when it rose to US$5. By that sort of revenue it is not possible to cover the lease."
Even if the match was sold out daily, at $1.50 a half hour they're just earning $30 per day.
The real world information flowing in from China should serve as a canary in the quarter mines of North America. Operators who spend large amounts of money on elaborate VR setups will probably find their little VR rooms being substituted by the entire world as a stage. As the setups get cheaper, smaller and more portable, the virtual arcades will look more expensive, bulky and limited. I would love to be proven wrong on this one, but I feel the arcade VR trend is more hype than hope.
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